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Bharti Airtel – basic analysis
Mar 4th
if you’re keen watcher of stock, you might have noticed, bharti airtel is still digging deep down, it is a confusing stock in recent time, unable to decide either to hold or sell it off. i did a basic study on the stock and here is the result of study i did on the stock.
before we go further, the reason airtel stocks going down is, it tried to acquire few foreign telecom companies, last year it tried to acquire MTN a african telecom company, this didnt succeed, now they are seeing zain africa a kuwaiti company, deal is still in talks and zain asking price is $10.7 billion.
emotionally speaking, a indian company expanding overseas, is good and it requires our support, but we cant blindly support some unrealistic dreams of the companies, and loose the money, but sunil mittal’s dream isnt unachievable. very much realistic, just huge.
who is zain?
zain is the only telecom company in africa which operates in several countries there, it is holding 50 – 70% of market, with about 4 crore subscribers, zain is asking about 255USD for each subscribers to airtel.
why airtel need zain?
airtel is the top player in india, now it is ambitious to expand outside india, it has penetrated sri lanka and bangladesh already and want to enter africa, african market is very green, has potential to grow with more subscribers, initially airtel tried to enter africa by acquiring MTN, but the deal got failed, now they are trying the same by acquiring zain, if they succeed they will be the third largest telecom company in middle east.
financial:
zain’s price tag is 10.7 billion USD, airtel need 9 billion USD from banks within and outside india, airtel can fetch upto 2-3 billion USD, airtel want that loan at 7% interest rate, airtel also in talks with banks on this.
lets talk problems:
- will airtel get loan at this low interest rate?
- zain is also operating in many african countries which doesnt have political stability, aill airtel capable enough to deal with it
- analysis by experts say, it will take 5 – 8 years for airtel to come back to normal.
good stock?
- airtel already operating in srilanka and bangladesh apart from india.
- airtel has plans to expand to 15 more countries
- africa has lowest cell subscribers, has potential to grow in years to come.
in my personal opinion very good stock for long term.
do you invest in gold? you should know about gold etf.
Dec 18th
if you are a person see gold as method of investment, you should have heard about gold etf already or know about it at least now. gold etf is purely for the person who sees gold as a investment, not for a person interested in owning physical gold. basically, what happens at gold etf ?.. is exchange traded fund, gold will be only traded commodity, it is a open ended mutual fund scheme, gold etf scheme’s are listed in nse stock exchange, you can buy a unit just like any other stock, that gold etf body, will invest the collected money from you(investor) in standard gold bullion(0.995 purity), and store it in their premises with high grade security, insurance etc. how much gold do i own if i have a 1 unit of gold etf? as per gold etf’s websites, they allot 1 gram of gold for every unit of gold etf unit. if you are a indian national, you probably already know the value of investing in gold – thank your mom for it 
, indian womans buy gold for all special occasions, gold is always a reliable method of investing money, but comes with problems-
- security – theft problems
- when you sell, we will loose some percentage in market price
- purity is always a concern
but in gold etf, you can sell it at market price, and highly protected, can buy in units. thats all the good things about gold etf, how do i buy them?
- you need a brokerage account – thats your demat account(sharekhan, geojit, indiabulls, icici direct, hdfc securities etc)
- identify the gold etf stocks
- Benchmark Mutual Fund – NSE: GOLDBEES
- Kotak Mutual Fund – NSE: KOTAKGOLD
- UTI Mutual Fund – NSE: GOLDSHARE
- Reliance Mutual Fund – NSE: RELGOLD
- Quantum Gold Fund – NSE: QGOLDHALF
Except Quantum Gold fund, rest of the funds trade for 1Gm of gold per unit, but QGOLDHALF trade for 0.5Gm of gold per unit, this is my favorite and personal recommendation since it allows me to buy as low as half a gram.
Must watch stock – Long term investment. (below Rs.50)
Dec 15th
IFCI
basic details:
nse code: IFCI
last price: 51.00
face value: 10
52 week high/low: 61.80/15.80
why its good choice?
in next 6 months there is very good possibility of acquiring bank license, or get acquired by a bank, this company has unrealized profit of 2,000Cr to 3,000Cr. in overall there is a prediction of book value get doubled(i.e: 70) by march 2010. this stock is very close to 50, it is in the list.
dishtv
basic details:
nse code: dishtv
last price: 39.85
face value: 1.00
52 week high/low: 57.20/17.60
why it is good choice?
dish tc’s today market share is 40%, there’s steady growth in this company, also the loss filing has reduced gradually, it is expected to start yielding profit in 1 year time. recently got 400Cr investment.
chemplast sanmar
basic details:
nse code: chemplast
last price: 9.60
face value: 1.00
52 week high/low: 15.10/3.10
why it is good choice?
this company involved in pvc pipe making, companies business is at 675Cr, this is expected to be at 1,000Cr by 2010 and 1,500Cr by 2011. this company has acquired a company in egypt for its raw material supply, in long term that is after 2 years will start making profit.
nhpc
basic details:
nse code: nhpc
last price: 32.40
face value: 10.00
52 week high/low: 42.00/29.40
why it is good choice?
this company involved in hydropower generation, it produces 5134 Mega Watt power currently, it has construction under going to produce 4622 Mega Watt, and has plans to produce 14,000 Mega Watt power in future, this companies production increasing at 5 fold, it is expected the price go three fold at least.
wire and wireless
basic details:
nse code: wwil
last price: 18.05
face value: 1.00
52 week high/low: 27.75/9.10
why it is good choice:
this is a IT stock, has a firm place in the sector, this company has the HITS (headend-in-the-sky) technology, technology meant for cable operation, this is one of two companies with permission to provide this service. this company have very good scope in the future. long term stock.
all prices are in Indian Rupee, quote price as on 15 December 2009.
mobile number portability delayed “again” – hats off trai!!!
Dec 7th
few days ago i was discussing about all those offers released by those gsm cell service providers, for prepaid customers, less than 1 paisa per sec, free so much etc, then we were wondering how these companies manage the be profitable? then concluded on a lighter side – i said from post paid customers, believe me, we post paid customers never get much offers, high usage bills, charge for everything, useless free stuff(e.g.: everyday 5000 sms) you will know what i am talking about, if you live in India and a post paid customer at some point of time.
salivating prepaid customer offers, hefty post paid bills, bad signal strength i receive from my provider etc, i want to try different provider and offer, but the biggest problem will be to convey my new number to friends, relatives, banks, office, business, websites, etc… list was huge. so i decided not to change my provider.
then i heard about number portability coming to India, which suppose to be launched by December 2009, but you know as many Indian telecom delay saga, it has been postponed to April 2010.
survey by AC Nielsen revealed :
post-paid subscribers and business subscribers show a greater tendency to switch if Mobile Number Portability is introduced.
I’m one among them, i am watching this number portability issue very closely and desperately.
Harley-Davidson in India
Dec 7th
The company has finally entered the Indian market after many false starts.Despite receiving permission to start operations in India in 2007, Harley-Davidson put its India plans on the backburner because of very high import duties and strict emission requirements.Harley-Davidson announced the plans to launch its range of motorcycles in India on August 27, 2009.The company is said to have launched five models Fat Boy, Night Rod Special, Roadster 883 cc category and a customized model, the Legend Harley.
All five motorcycles, that will go on sale in 2010, are in the price range of 10 lakh upwards. This is because the company will import completely built units, which will attract an import duty of 60 per cent.
BSNL 3G Tariff plan
Dec 6th
for quite some months we have been hearing about the BSNL 3G Launch. Many of us very much keen to know the Tariff details.find the details below Initial SIM Charges for both postpaid and prepaid service: Cost of SIM (Inclusive of Service Tax) in Rs. : 300 Talk Value in Rs. : NIL Initial Validity in days : 7 Migration from 2-G to 3-G : Not feasible at present Applicable to : Voice & Data plan Voice Plans: Prepaid Voice Prepaid: Activation Vouchers (for choosing a particular plan) Talk value in : Rs. 270 Validity in Days : 30 Call Charges in Rs./Min Local – On-net : 0.40 Local – Off-net : 0.70 Local-Video calls : 2.00 STD – On-net : 1.00 STD – Off-net : 1.00 STD – Video calls : 3.00 P2P SMS (Rs./SMS) SMS – Local : 0.50 SMS – National : 1.00 SMS- International : 5.00 Data usage in Rs./MB : 3.00 BSNL 3G Data Plans Trial Pack Trial Pack – 50 MB : Rs 60 (15 days Validity) Trial Pack – 100 MB : Rs 120 (15 days Validity) Data Plans: Prepaid Plan Price in Rs. : 250 Free data usage in GB : 0.30 Validity (Days) : 30 Data Charges in Rs./MB : 2.00 Plan Price in Rs. : 400 Free data usage in GB : 1 Validity (Days) : 30 Data Charges in Rs./MB : 2.00 Plan Price in Rs. : 650 Free data usage in GB : 2 Validity (Days) : 30 Data Charges in Rs./MB : 2.00 Plan Price in Rs. : 1000 Free data usage in GB : 5 Validity (Days) : 30 Data Charges in Rs./MB : 2.00 Plan Price in Rs. : 3001 Free data usage in GB : unlimited Validity (Days) : 30
Uninor in India.DoCoMo and Uninor are changing the rules of the game
Dec 6th
Uninor has launched it’s GSM service in India .They are the 8th GSM operator in India.The launch, as the company claims is the largest single day launch in telecom history, as the service is now available to 550 million people, i.e. 7 circles – Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar & Uttar Pradesh (East & West).
Pricing
Uninor will be retailed at 210,000 point of sale via ~1000 distributors – the company offers two plans, ‘talklonger@29p/min’ and ‘callmore@29p/min’.
While other telcos are bringing down the pricing from 1 paisa/sec to 0.5 paisa/sec, Uninor raises the bar with 29p/min (which is still lower than 0.5p/sec).
TalkMore offers local calls @29 p/minute (with setup charge of 39p), while Callmore offers calls at 29 paise and STD at 49 paise per minute, with a daily rental of Rs2.
DoCoMo and now Uninor – lets hope we don’t compromise on the network quality.
New telecom operators, DoCoMo and Uninor are changing the rules of the game and Bharti CEO has even asked TRAI to look into the predatory pricing strategy by new telecom operators to woo customers.
And as one telcom puts it aptly:
“When Trai wanted all telcos to provide the per-second billing option, large operators opposed the move and sought that tariffs be left to market forces. But, when market forces take over, they want the regulator to step in. Any reduction in tariffs benefits customers and therefore their stance is anti-consumer”
Will Indian telecom incumbents lose out to new players, owing to their resistance to change? Remember the days when even incoming was charged and incumbents like Bharti sucked the blood out of customers until Reliance came in and changed the game.
